타로 카드의 정확한 기원에 대해서는 여전히 학자들 사이에서 다양한 이론이 존재하지만, 일반적으로 15세기 초 이탈리아 르네상스 시대에 처음 등장한 것으로 알려져 있습니다.
Records of cats' abnormal behavior before earthquakes | Low-frequency, electromagnetic fields, groundwater science | Animal earthquake prediction research in Japan
At 2:46 PM on March 11, 2011, a massive magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck off the coast of Tohoku, Japan. It was the fifth most powerful earthquake in human history. The subsequent tsunami claimed the lives of approximately 20,000 people.
However, days before the earthquake struck, cat owners across Japan experienced something unusual. A woman in Tokyo posted on her blog that her cat of seven years had suddenly gone into hiding and refused to come out. A man in Sendai noted that his two cats barely ate for days and just stared out the window. In a household in Miyagi Prefecture, a normally gentle cat suddenly scratched all the family members and ran away.
After the earthquake, these records were re-examined. Was this merely a coincidence? Or did cats truly sense something before humans could?
Historical Records — Patterns Repeated Over Thousands of Years
The idea that animals can predict earthquakes is not new. In 373 BC, the ancient Greek historian Diodorus Siculus recorded that countless animals deserted the city of Helice just before a massive earthquake. Rats, snakes, earthworms, and weasels reportedly showed abnormal behavior days in advance.
In China, there are records spanning thousands of years of utilizing animal behavior for earthquake prediction. Documents from the Qing Dynasty note that before an earthquake, chickens would abandon their nests, dogs would bark incessantly, and fish would leap to the surface of the water.
In Japan, there is a long-standing belief that catfish show abnormal behavior before earthquakes. Many paintings from the Edo period (1603-1868) depict catfish as creatures that either cause or predict earthquakes. As a side note, in the 1973 Japanese animation "Kerokko Demetan" (known in Korea as "Frog boy Wangnuni"), which the author enjoyed in childhood, the final boss is a giant catfish living deep in the Rainbow Pond who becomes panicked and confused by an earthquake. This setting reflects traditional Japanese folklore (the legend that a giant catfish moving underground causes earthquakes).
Records regarding cats are also abundant. Particularly in the earthquake histories of Japan, Italy, and China, accounts of cats' abnormal behavior prior to earthquakes appear repeatedly. Just before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China, local residents reported seeing cats, dogs, and horses acting extremely anxious. However, the Chinese government ignored these reports at the time, resulting in approximately 240,000 deaths without any warning.
The 1975 Haicheng earthquake was different. Chinese authorities took precursor phenomena, including abnormal animal behavior, seriously and issued an evacuation order, significantly reducing casualties. This event heightened the scientific community's interest in utilizing animal behavior for earthquake prediction.
Specific Observation Records — Behaviors Exhibited by Cats
The most frequently reported abnormal behaviors of cats before an earthquake are as follows:
Extreme anxiety and hiding: A normally quiet and gentle cat suddenly becomes extremely anxious and hides in enclosed spaces like corners, under the bed, or in closets, refusing to come out. This is the most frequently reported behavior. Following the 2016 Amatrice earthquake in Italy, surveys collected reports that hiding behavior among local cats was significantly higher than usual on the night before the earthquake.
Attempts to escape outdoors: An indoor cat suddenly keeps throwing itself at windows or doors trying to get out, or moves to places it normally avoids. This is interpreted as an instinct to flee a dangerous area.
Loss of appetite and changes in water intake: There are reports of cats eating almost nothing for days, or conversely, drinking much more water than usual. This is linked to the hypothesis that changes in the ion composition of groundwater might affect the taste of the water.
Excessive grooming or refusal to groom: As an extreme stress response, cats are reported to either lick their fur excessively or, conversely, completely stop grooming despite normally being fastidious.
Relocating kittens: Mother cats suddenly moving their kittens from their original spot to another location. Relocating them outside the building or to higher places is particularly reported.
Atypical aggression: A normally docile cat scratching, biting, or hissing at family members for no reason. This is interpreted as extreme anxiety manifesting as aggression.
Questions Posed by Science — Three Possible Mechanisms
If these observations are true, what exactly are cats sensing? There are currently three main hypotheses being explored by scientists.
Hypothesis 1 — Infrasound: Before an earthquake occurs, tectonic shifts generate infrasound. The human audible range is 20Hz to 20,000Hz. Infrasound consists of sounds below 20Hz, which are inaudible to humans. Many animals possess the ability to detect this infrasound.
Elephants use infrasound to communicate with peers tens of kilometers away. Whales do the same. So, what about cats? The hearing range of a cat is known to be 45Hz to 64,000Hz. This is much wider than a human's, especially in the high-frequency direction. However, in the low-frequency direction, their lower limit is 45Hz, which is similar to humans.
Strictly speaking, it has not been fully proven that cats hear infrasound. However, there is a hypothesis that other organs in the body that detect vibrations, such as tactile receptors in the paw pads or the vestibular system in the inner ear, can detect infrasound as vibrations. This means a cat's paw pads might be the first to sense the low-frequency vibrations created by tectonic shifts before an earthquake.
Hypothesis 2 — Electromagnetic Field Changes: Before an earthquake, pressure on the earth's crust causes a seismoelectric phenomenon. When rocks are under pressure, electricity is generated. This is called the piezoelectric effect. As these electrical signals propagate through the ground, they cause changes in the electromagnetic field near the surface. The hypothesis is that animals detect these changes.
Indeed, there are reports that electromagnetic anomalies were observed before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. A research team from the University of Tokyo recorded anomalies in AM radio reception. AM radios are sensitive to electromagnetic field changes.
That animals can detect electromagnetic fields has been confirmed in other studies. It is a well-known fact that migratory birds use the Earth's magnetic field to navigate. Sharks have organs that detect incredibly minute electrical field changes. Bees also detect electromagnetic fields.
There is no direct evidence yet that cats have a special organ for detecting electromagnetic fields. However, the possibility remains open that a cat's highly sensitive nervous system reacts to these changes.
Hypothesis 3 — Changes in Groundwater and Underground Gases: Tectonic shifts before an earthquake alter the ion composition, water level, and flow direction of groundwater. Additionally, underground fissures release radioactive gases like radon to the surface. The hypothesis is that cats can sense these changes.
A cat's sense of smell is far more acute than a human's. While humans have about 5 million olfactory receptors, cats have around 200 million. It is not entirely impossible that a cat's nose can detect minute changes in gases released from underground. They might also detect changes in the smell or taste of water sources caused by groundwater alterations. This could be connected to the changes in cats' drinking behavior before earthquakes.
Japan's Scientific Approach — Animal Behavior Database
In earthquake-prone Japan, there have been attempts to approach this issue scientifically.
Research at the University of Tokyo: Various research teams at the University of Tokyo's Earthquake Research Institute have attempted to systematically record and analyze changes in animal behavior before earthquakes. However, this research faces a fundamental difficulty. Abnormal behavior must be recorded before an earthquake, but since it is unknown when an earthquake will strike, data must be collected continuously. Furthermore, because cats frequently exhibit everyday abnormal behaviors unrelated to earthquakes, it is difficult to filter out the noise.
The OBAFMI Project: In Japan, crowdsourced data collection projects have been attempted where citizens report abnormal animal behaviors. It involves building a database by recording abnormal behaviors of cats, dogs, birds, etc., along with the date and location.
The goal is to cross-reference this data with subsequent earthquakes to see if patterns emerge. Initial results are intriguing, but there is not yet enough data to draw statistically significant conclusions.
A Notable 2018 Study: A joint study conducted by the Max Planck Institute in Germany and an Italian research team was published in 2018. The study continuously monitored the behavior of cows, sheep, and dogs on a farm in a highly seismic region of Italy using attached accelerometers for 24 hours a day.
The results were fascinating. For several hours before an earthquake struck, the animals' activity patterns changed in a statistically significant way. Notably, the closer they were to the epicenter, and the larger the earthquake's magnitude, the more pronounced this behavioral change was. This study is considered one of the strongest pieces of scientific evidence that abnormal animal behavior before an earthquake may not simply be a myth. Although it did not directly target cats, it suggests the possibility of abnormal behavior detection in animals in general.
Skeptical Views — Why Science Remains Cautious
Despite all these fascinating observations, the scientific community remains highly cautious. And there are good reasons for this caution.
The Problem of Confirmation Bias: Cats constantly behave weirdly. They hide for no reason, suddenly become aggressive, and refuse food. This is the nature of cats. Such behaviors always occur even when there is no earthquake. However, after an earthquake happens, people remember that their cat acted strangely beforehand. On the flip side, they forget the dozens of times there was abnormal behavior but no earthquake. This is confirmation bias. People remember evidence that confirms their beliefs and forget evidence that contradicts them.
Causation vs. Correlation: Even if changes in cat behavior are statistically more frequent before earthquakes, it does not prove that cats are predicting the earthquake. Some other factor could be causing both the earthquake and the change in the cat's behavior. For example, changes in weather or atmospheric pressure could affect both earthquakes and animal behavior.
Lack of Reproducibility: To date, no study has reproduced changes in cats' pre-earthquake behavior under controlled experimental conditions. Nor has any study definitively proven that an animal's reaction is due to specific earthquake precursor phenomena. Science accepts as truth that which can be repeatedly reproduced. Animal behavior in earthquake prediction does not yet meet that standard.
The Official Stance of the Japan Meteorological Agency: The Japan Meteorological Agency does not adopt animal behavior as an official earthquake prediction indicator. This is because there is insufficient scientific evidence. Instead, they focus on verified methods like seismometers, GPS displacement measurements, and groundwater level monitoring.
An Open Door of Possibility — What Recent Studies Show
While skeptical views are valid, recent studies do not completely close the door on this possibility.
Ionized Air Research: A hypothesis gaining attention in the 2020s is ionized air. When rocks are subjected to pressure before an earthquake, ionized air can be generated at specific locations on the surface. This ionized air possesses electrical properties that can be detected by some animals. Dr. Friedemann Freund of Stanford University has been researching this mechanism for decades. According to his research, hole currents generated in rocks before an earthquake can travel to the surface and ionize the air, which can then be detected by animals.
Radon Gas Research: An increase in radon gas emissions before an earthquake is a relatively well-confirmed phenomenon. Several studies in Japan, Italy, and the US have observed increased radon concentrations prior to earthquakes. The hypothesis that a cat's highly sensitive sense of smell can detect these changes in radon concentration is currently being explored.
Advancements in Non-Invasive Monitoring Technology: The development of smartphones and IoT technology has made large-scale animal behavior monitoring possible. Using pet GPS trackers, smart collars, and camera-based behavioral analysis, behavior data from millions of animals can be collected in real-time. Linking this data with earthquake data enables statistical analysis on a scale previously impossible. Significant progress in this field of research is expected within the next 10 to 20 years.
Meaning in Everyday Life — How We Should View Cat Behavior
How should we apply all this information in our everyday lives?
Do not ignore your cat's abnormal behavior: Of course, cats always act strangely. However, if an unusual pattern of abnormal behavior—especially hiding, trying to escape, or loss of appetite—persists for several days, it is worth paying attention.
However, do not over-rely on it: Predicting earthquakes solely based on cat behavior has not been scientifically verified. Earthquake preparedness should be done using scientifically verified methods (preparing emergency supplies, confirming evacuation routes, securing furniture, etc.).
Keep a record: If your cat shows unusual behavior different from their norm, write down the date and the behavior. This data could be helpful for scientific research later. There are apps and platforms in Japan that collect such citizen reports.
Cats Knew — The Value of That Belief
Even if not fully proven scientifically, this story has value. We do not completely understand nature. There are things in this world that human senses cannot capture. And the fact that animals, having undergone millions of years of evolution, might detect some of them is not a biologically impossible tale.
To simply dismiss thousands of years of records across dozens of countries showing cats exhibiting abnormal behavior before earthquakes as mere superstition might also be excessive arrogance. Perhaps the truth lies somewhere between these two extremes. Cats may not be perfect earthquake predictors, but there is a possibility they can feel certain environmental changes ahead of time that humans cannot. Keeping that possibility open and continuing to research is the role of science.
If your cat suddenly goes into hiding, it might not be a bad idea to look up and check your surroundings for once.
Have you ever personally noticed any of your pets acting strangely right before a major storm or natural event?
